Acompanhamento e Previsões Dezembro / 2013

Bueno, embora já há 19 dias do dezembro...

Que tal???

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Bueno, aqui segue "a treva"... SBSM 191500Z 14009KT CAVOK 30/21 Q1009 59%... Aqui em casa 33,6ºC com 46%...   

A tradução é livre, mas o aviso é ´serio    

"SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1251 PM EST THU DEC 19 2013

GFS DATA AT FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/GFS/PROD/

MODEL DISCUSSION (VALID FROM 19 DECEMBER 00UTC): THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN/EVOLUTION THROUGH 120-132 HRS...
WHILE THE UKMET STARTS TO DIVERGE BY 96-108 HRS. DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST CYCLE MODELS TRENDING TOWARDS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC...WITH RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WHILE A TROUGH MEANDERS TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH
MODELS AGREE ON INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE THEY DIVERGE ON THE
INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH. IN THIS AREA THE MEAN OF THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES TEND TO FAVOR THE DEEPER UKMET SOLUTION...A TREND THAT
THE CURRENT GFS SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING. SO EXPECTING FURTHER
CORRECTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT 200 HPA...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENVELOPS CONTINENTAL AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 40S AND WEST OF 55W/60W...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN BOLIVIA. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS HIGH
TO GRADUALLY RELOCATE ACROSS NORTHERN CHILE TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BY 60-72 HRS...ENTERING AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH IS TO THEN REMAIN OF THE COAST THROUGH
132-144 HRS. AS THE HIGH/RIDGE RECEDES TOWARDS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE EAST IS TO THEN AMPLIFY
ACROSS BRASIL. BY 48-72 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO EXTEND TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG 30S 47W TO MATO GROSSO/PARA. THE TROUGH REACHES
MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE BY 84-96 HRS. BEST DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALONG THE EASTERN-NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE-TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE VENTILATION TO THE SACZ AS IT MEANDERS WEST ALONG 20S
BETWEEN RIO DE JANEIRO/ESPIRITO SANTO TO RONDONIA/NORTHERN
BOLIVIA. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE CONTINENT...AND REGION OF ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION. ACROSS RIO DE JANEIRO-MINAS GERAIS-ESPIRITO
SANTO-BAHIA-TOCANTINS/GOIAS TO MATO GROSSO THE DAILY MAXIMA IS TO
RANGE BETWEEN 75-125MM OVER THE NEXT 60-72 HRS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN AMPLIFIES...FOCUS OF THE HEAVY RAINS WILL SHIFT
WEST AND NORTH TO PARA-TOCANTINS/GOIAS. ACROSS NORTHEAST BRASIL
THIS IS TO THEN DECREASE TO 35-70MM...WHILE OVER CENTRAL BRASIL
THE MAXIMA IS TO THEN PEAK AT 75-125MM. OTHER ACTIVITY IS TO BUILD
ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN
RONDONIA-NORTHERN BOLIVIA TO SOUTHERN PERU. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING
RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 48 HRS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES...THIS IS TO THEN DECREASE TO 20-35MM.
FURTHERMORE...DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS TO THEN INDUCE A SURFACE LOW
JUST EAST OF RIO DE JANEIRO BY 42-48 HRS...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS
SUGGESTING POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING IN THIS AREA. IF A
CYCLONE DEVELOPS...GOVERNMENT OF BRASIL WILL ISSUE THE NECESSARY
WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

OVER THE SOUTHEAST PACIFIC...AS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...BROAD
TROUGH DOMINATES THE FLOW. THIS IS PRESSING AGAINST BLOCKING RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AS THE RIDGE HOLDS...IT IS TO THEN STEER SHORT WAVE
PERTURBATIONS REVOLVING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CHILE AND PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA. IN THIS PATTERN EXPECTING A
STRONG PERTURBATION TO ENTER SOUTHERN CHILE THROUGH 30-36
HRS...CROSSING THE DRAKE PASSAGE TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 48
HRS. AT LOW LEVELS IT IS TO SUSTAIN A DEEP TROUGH...WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONT ENTERING SOUTHERN CHILE BY 24-30 HRS...AND THEN
WEST ACROSS PATAGONIA IN ARGENTINA TO CENTRAL CHILE BY 48 HRS.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT AND STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
OF 30-40KT...WITH TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION TO PEAK AT
15-20MM. ACROSS LA PAMPA IN ARGENTINA...AS THE FRONT MEANDERS
NORTH...IT IS TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM.

THE NEXT POLAR PERTURBATION IS TO GRADUALLY SHEAR EASTWARD AS IT
PRESSES AGAINST THE RIDGE OVER THE CONTINENT. STARTING AT 84
HRS...AND TO PERSIST THROUGH 108 HRS...SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS TO
SPREAD ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CHILE/PATAGONIA IN
ARGENTINA. AT LOW LEVELS IT IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN AN ELONGATED FRONT
THAT IS TO ENTER SOUTHERN CHILE BY 84-96 HRS...WHERE IT IS TO
MEANDER THROUGH 108-120 HRS. THIS IS TO ALSO TRIGGER SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM.

VICENTE...FAA (ARGENTINA)
PASCUALETTI...DMC (CHILE)
DAVISON...WPC (USA) "

Feliz Natal Zeca, Vitor, Ilson, Pedro, Kevin, Flávio e a todos os demais participantes!
Que Deus abençoe a todos vocês e suas famílias!

Obrigado Felipe!!!!

Voltemos à carga...

Mas bah, vai ser um aguaceiro...

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Agora vamos por partes, tal dizia o esquartejador   ..

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Bueno, aqui segue tórrido... 33,4ºC com 46%... SBSM 281200Z 00000KT CAVOK 29/21 Q1011 62%...

Feliz 2014!!!
Que Deus abençoe a todos e lhes dê muita paz, saúde, dinheiro e felicidades!!     

Felipe Freitas escreveu:Feliz 2014!!!
Que Deus abençoe a todos e lhes dê muita paz, saúde, dinheiro e felicidades!!     

Obrigado Felipe, pra mim não faz diferença nenhuma a mudança de um número no final do calendário, como diz uma frase "não espere dar certo, faça dar certo", quem faz a vida somos nós, e podemos mudá-lá ou tentar isso a qualquer tempo, enfim, que nós do fórum sejamos felizes e saúdaveis, não só em 2014, mas em toda a vida que temos pela frente.  

E que esse ano seja meteorologicamente bom pra quem gosta de frio em MG,RJ e ES (que não chova tanto lá também), já que 2013 foi uma porcaria, acho que o homem ainda não tem poder de manipular o clima, então podemos contar com a sorte.